PHÒNG CHỐNG BÃO ! – Prevent storm damage – Prévention des catastrophes naturelles

With global warming expected to increase sea levels by at least a meter and Vietnam having a low coastline, the impact on the country could be disastrous, an expert told Thanh Nien.  

Thanh Nien spoke to Peter Hayes, Professor of International Relations at RMIT University in Melbourne, who is also executive director of the San Francisco-based public think tank Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, which held a two-day workshop on global warming in HCMC this week. 

Can you give us a brief overview of global warming?

Global warming and cooling have occurred naturally throughout history. But in the last 200 years, humans’ uses of fossil fuels and clear-cutting of forests have increased the amount of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere.These gases trap some of the incoming radiation from the sun which then increases the Earth’s mean temperature.Given the current state of environmental pollution caused by human activities, scientists believe the average temperature of the earth may increase 1-2 degrees Celsius which put simply, means some places will get much hot-ter and some much colder.At the same time, this overall warming effect means more frequent and more intense weather systems, especially in terms of flooding and drought. 

What impact does this have on cities in Vietnam?

In a city like HCMC, one expects to see more heat stress and ecological changes.For instance, more weeds and allergens may result, interacting with air pollution that could increase respiratory disease and have a host of other impacts on the physical environment.Global warming experts consider Vietnam one of the “most vulnerable” when it comes to global warming. 

How so?

Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable environments due to its location on the planet.It is already subject to some of the earth’s most powerful weather systems and the increased frequency and intensity of storms will affect it often and directly, especially in coastal areas where most people live. 

What could the consequences of global warming do to Vietnam’s GDP?

Various estimates have been made as to the possible impacts, but likely, Vietnam will see a range of 3-8% per year in losses due to human-induced climate change.The most directly affected sector will be agriculture, which is very sensitive to flooding and the effects of extreme weather.However, all areas will be affected, and a great deal of infra-structure will have to be retrofitted or rebuilt to withstand the effects of violent storms. 

Given such likelihood, what choices are there for Vietnam?

The Vietnamese face stark options: do nothing and pay the price – which has never been acceptable to Vietnam; respond to climate change that is occurring already due to past pollution – which means defending existing social, cultural, and biophysical assets (such as dykes), or retreating (move inland, replant mangroves and reduce prawn farming in mangrove areas); or anticipate and prepare for increasing future climate change – which means setting aside funds, figuring out how to insure against uncertain future impacts, creating anticipatory networks at the house-hold, local, provincial, national and international level, and generally creating and sustaining options for greater sustainability. 

What practical measures can Vietnam take in preparing for climate change?

Vietnam has the advantage of coming relatively late into the industrialization, urbanization, and modernization process.This means it can avoid many of the mistakes made by wealthier industrial countries and take a different path to development from that of China or South Korea.For example, wireless communication networks can be built from the start rather than installing lines that can easily be destroyed in extreme weather.Cities can be designed and located in less vulnerable locations.Climate-friendly building codes and standards can be created that are both more efficient and less prone to heat stress, wind damage, and flooding.Climate friendly transport systems, especially public transport, can be adopted. 

SEA LEVELS RISE

According to a 2007 study entitled, Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries, sponsored by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), Vietnam is number one on the list of countries in jeopardy.

Vietnam could lose up to:

■ 16 % of its land (Taiwan comes in second with 5 %)

■ 35 % of its GDP (Thailand is second with 22 %)

■ 40 % of its population (Thailand is second with13 %)

■ 23 % of its agriculture (Myanmar is second with 12 %)

■ 90 % of its wetlands (Myanmar is second with 40 %).

Story from Thanh Nien News Published: 09 November, 2007

See full study at :  http://go.worldbank.org/XU9B5UFR30